Aayush Raj Dhakal
About
I'm a PhD student in Agricultural & Consumer Economics at the University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign. I study commodity marketing, risk management, and farmers’ decision-making.
Research Interests
- Commodity Marketing under Risk & Uncertainty
- Price Analysis
- Commodity Markets & Price Risk Management
Articles
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Risk Management and Reality: Farmers’ Use of Futures Markets
Dhakal & Janzen · Dec 27, 2024 · farmdoc daily
This article explores Illinois grain farmers’ use of futures markets as a risk management tool. Analysis of farm financial records shows that about 15% of farms hold active futures accounts, with adoption more common among larger operations. However, average prices received by futures users and non-users are similar, with only modest advantages in years of falling prices. The findings suggest that while futures play a vital role in price discovery, their direct use provides limited marketing benefits relative to other strategies such as forward contracts, crop insurance, and government support.
Working Papers
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Production Costs, Price Expectations and Reference‑Dependent Grain Marketing Behavior
Dhakal & Janzen · 2025 · Working paper
This study examines how heterogeneity in cost structures and belief formation shapes reference-dependent grain marketing behavior among farmers. Using panel data from the Illinois Farm Business Farm Management (FBFM) program, we extend the reference dependence framework to a cross-sectional context, relaxing the common assumption of homogeneous reference prices across producers. Employing a finite mixture model with fixed effects, we identify two distinct behavioral groups: one highly responsive to price changes, and another more passive. We further test whether production costs function as farmer-specific reference prices—a widely discussed but rarely empirically tested concept. Results show asymmetric marketing responses around the reference point: farmers sell more when prices exceed their cost-based reference and less when prices fall below. These findings support the presence of reference-dependent preferences and highlight the importance of incorporating individual financial conditions into behavioral models and the design of marketing advisory services.
Read the working paper (AgeconSearch)
Presented at 2025 AAEA & WAEA Joint Annual Meeting, Denver
CV
Contact
Email: adhakal3@illinois.edu